If it weren’t clear already, I am very optimistic about the future of the private space industry. I’ve had many conversations with pessimists on private space – those who simply doubt feasibility generally bring up two major problems:
Most of the NewSpace companies popping up everywhere can’t possibly succeed.
Look at the beginning of any large industry and you will see an explosion of new companies. Yes, 90% of these will fail, but their failure makes the industry as a whole stronger. Recently, this can be seen in the dot-com boom and in the emergence of the personal computing industry before that. The trend isn’t limited to electronics though (a common counterargument) if you look farther back to the beginning of the 20th century, the infant auto industry had dozens of companies before the market pruned them down to the survivors that exist today.
The contrast between the picture during the industry’s infancy and after it matures is stark. Anyone aware of the companies in these nascent markets can name dozens that no longer exist, while those of us who were after see only the more steady picture that emerged. For example, the personal computer industry had already matured by the time I knew about it, so I couldn’t name any of the (apparently) many computer companies that went out of business in the 80’s. However, I can name scores of search engines and internet companies that were running around in the early 2000’s before the big players consolidated their positions and the untenable companies went out of business.
I see no reason why the NewSpace industry isn’t on the leading edge of this pattern.
And as a teaser- Problem 2:
Space flight is fundamentally different than other industries due to the required capitol.
Stop by tomorrow for my response!